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CinnasVerses

@ CinnasVerses @awful.systems

Posts
2
Comments
289
Joined
9 mo. ago

  • The SpaceX IPO works like a crypto fraud, but with AI

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  • Who’s going to buy this profit-free stock selling for 100 times earnings?

    I think its worse than a P/E ratio of 100. It is 100 times revenue. Earnings in this context mean profits, so a company which is losing money has no P/E ratio. The argument is that if $100 of stock corresponds to $10 of profit last year (P/E 10), that is probably a better buy than if $100 of stock corresponds to $5 of profit last year (P/E 20).

    And yes, this looks to me like a crypto rugpull crossed with all the tricks which keep Tether prices and Tesla shares floating in midair.

  • Featured

    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 31st May 2026

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  • Ouch, "picking up a cute young thing at the bar and hot tub at the ski resort" "building a happy working relationship with a sex worker" and "romantic pair-bonding" are three different skills! No wonder he thinks looks and body language are so important if he is trying to take women straight to bed.

    RMN is a pro wrestling event, but he probably means Red Means No, Aella's consensual-nonconsent orgies.

  • Featured

    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 31st May 2026

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  • Did you try RationalWiki or the page for Hanson himself? Read it next to Taleb's The Black Swan patiently explaining to clever but inexperienced young men that you cannot perfectly predict the future just diversify and prepare for different scenarios.

    A lot of rats give Robin Hanson credit for things which are much older (prediction markets for elections are recorded back to the 16th century, The Great Filter was huge in Cold War pop culture). Werner Antweiler at UBC ran a prediction market from 1993 to 2008.

  • Featured

    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 31st May 2026

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  • At minute 8 of "SpaceX IPO: Nice Try Though" Patrick Boyle mentions some circular finance: some of the banks which lent SpaceX $29 billion in March will be guaranteeing the IPO by promising to buy some shares to stabilize the price. Later he also points out that the banks financing the IPO have to buy Grok services and may be its main paying customers. Musk has done this sort of thing before eg. using Tesla (shareholder-owned) money to buy SolarCity which he partially owned. I knew a serial fraudster who moved to Texas for its business-friendly laws and courts.

    He liked the piss-tinged blog post by Cape Fear Advisors and estimates that the Muskrat wants to raise $50-75 billion in the IPO.

    It took Kaiser Bill to break the economic power of London and Paris, but the Muskrat thinks he can speedrun that game for the New York City map.

  • Pope Leo to AI bros: Just stop it

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  • Pope Leo and Brad DeLong are great examples of people we can make tactical alliances with on single issues

  • Featured

    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 31st May 2026

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  • Michael Burry is one of the investors who is shorting big tech. (Business Insider - paywalled Substack). I just invest much less in the USA than its 60% share of the global stock market, and less than 40% of that in big tech.

  • is there any way to invest ethically as a sole individual?

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  • Find a specialist in socially responsible investing or ESG investing in your country (like someone with a Master's Degree in the subject who charges as much as a lawyer for consultations). As others have said, that term means different things to different people, so you have to look at what specific funds actually own and how they decide what they will buy going forward.

  • Featured

    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 31st May 2026

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  • Most leading Rationalists are autistic, but many of them are in denial. Many are Jewish or have Jewish parents. You can debate which kind of folly let them embrace eugenics and white supremacism: are they brain-proud and desperate to believe that they were destined from birth to rule? Sure that they just have eccentric Ashkenazi genius genes not inferior Autistic genes? Naive that the deportations would stop with black and brown people? Their favourite Catholic fantasy author had some warnings for them.

  • Featured

    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 31st May 2026

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  • Featured

    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 31st May 2026

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  • Mike Masnick had a look at Twitter's financials in the SpaceX IPO. From $4.5 billion in ad revenue in 2021, twitter + Grok is down to $3 billion ad revenue a year (and losing $6 billion a year just on the CSAM-generating chatbot). His billionaire friends tossed in $2 billion or $250 million each into the kitty after a brief chat back in 2022.

  • Featured

    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 31st May 2026

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  • don’t kinkshame

    Back in my day California perverts said "don't scene in public"

  • Featured

    Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 31st May 2026

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  • Anthropic (who own Claude Code) are hoping to IPO this year.

  • How to disinvest from the chatbot bubble

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  • Yes, you want to avoid conflicts of interest like an advisor employed by a bank selling that bank's financial products.

    A financial advisor or financial planner can add value in areas like:

    • set you up making monthly contributions to something broadly reasonable
    • helping you figure out what types of insurance you need
    • keeping you from putting all your money in stocks that are booming, then selling them all when they crash and staying uninvested for years
    • help you decide whether to keep your emergency fund in a high-interest savings account, a money-market fund, or a regular bank account
    • avoid paying too many taxes on your investments

    But many are collecting 1%+ a year to decide whether to buy Honda stock or BMW stock, and there is very strong evidence that this adds no value. (eg. my current employer's pension fund charges 2% a year). For everyone managing $100 million who does 1% better than average, someone managing $100 million has to do 1% worse, and how can you pick the right one in advance? Even if you do, what happens if they have a stroke and their risk-taking assistant takes over the fund?

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • FTX investor the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan is a major investor in SpaceX. This seems to be part of the Teachers’ Innovation Platform from April 2019. Mr. Kipling said it best:

    As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man There are only four things certain since Social Progress began. That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire, And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire.

    Meanwhile the Canadian stock market is up 40% in the past 1 year.

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • And the people making these decisions know that they don't invest much in China because they don't trust Chinese government statistics and the Chinese stock market is rigged. They know that it is hard to get middle-aged schoolteachers and plumbers to put their savings on the stock market even if that market is scrupulously honest. But the USA has been the center of global capitalism since about 1917 and it is hard for them to imagine that changing.

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • Forbes says he is Quebecois with a PhD from UWaterloo. That does not stop him tweeting about "foreigners" (= foreign to the USA, but not including him obviously).

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • He already pulled the same con on a Japanese billionaire in 2018, just talked about flying around the moon not landing on Mars (Wikipedia: dearMoon)

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • I don't know Guillaume Verdon / Beff Jezos but Forbes' profile begins:

    Andreessen Horowitz cofounder Marc Andreessen says @BasedBeffJezos is a “patron saint of techno-optimism.” Garry Tan, who cofounded the venture firm Initialized Capital before becoming CEO of Y Combinator, calls him “brother.” Sam Altman, who founded OpenAI — the company that finally mainstreamed artificial intelligence — has jokingly sparred with him on Twitter. Elon Musk says his memes are “🔥🔥🔥.”

    He has an entry on the Effective Accelerationism wiki https://www.eaccwiki.com/index.php?title=Beff_Jezos

  • OpenAI user numbers go flat — just in time for the IPO

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  • I am not a CPA but I think that means "they spend $2.22 to make another $1.00"

  • TechTakes @awful.systems
    CinnasVerses @awful.systems

    How to disinvest from the chatbot bubble

  • TechTakes @awful.systems
    CinnasVerses @awful.systems

    Our Friends Are Getting Wobbly on Prediction Markets