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CinnasVerses

@ CinnasVerses @awful.systems

Posts
2
Comments
289
Joined
9 mo. ago

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • So a mid-sized software company called Epic is chatting with Cremieux / Jordan Lasker on twitter?

    If your employer is using their software, that might be something to email and ask for a meeting about.

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • Owenomics is also worried about changing the rules to add SpaceX and OpenAI to NASDAQ and the S&P500 while only a tiny fraction of their shares are available for trading. "Bad idea. If float is too low, the market cap is meaningless and should not be relied upon for any purpose. "

    Back in January he said that the US stock market is not in a bubble until Robert Shiller's "CAPE rises to 80 (similar to Japan’s CAPE in 1989)." The CAPE (a ratio of price to the average earning for the past ten years) of the S&P500 is around 40, similar to the US in January 2000.

    He does not mention new era thinking (chapters 5 and 6 of Shiller's Irrational Exuberance).

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • I think that is 30% of 3% of the market cap for retail investors. There are many ordinary people who keep the price of Tesla shares high because they have faith in the CEO, but an index fund spending 0.2% of its money on something then losing it is just an ordinary day (one S&P 500 fund I checked has 4% of its money in M$ which has about twice the market cap as SpaceX wants to have, I assume that at least ten times as many shares of M$ are available to trade on the stock market).

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • A Substack in the name of Cape Fear Advisors LLC argued that SpaceX wants to get in people's retirement accounts then say to Uncle Sam "you had better give us lots of contracts or we will crash and take grandma's retirement funds with us." Sucking on the government teat has been one of Elon Musk's favourite strategies since he got access to a State of California green transport grant.

    I do not know if that can work because only a few percent of the company will be for sale so they will only be a fraction of a percent of those index funds. They can definitely sell some shares for real dollars, and if they keep the price high they can borrow real dollars against the shares which are not on the market like people borrow against bitcoin.

    I will not link because it is in that articulate but empty style that does well on Substack. It may be written by or with help from AI.

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • SpaceX's IPO filing has an unusual paragraph on page 235:

    On January 13, 2026, our board approved the grant of 1 billion performance-based restricted shares of Class B common stock to Mr. Musk. The restricted shares vest upon (i) our achievement of specified market capitalization milestones across 15 equal tranches and (ii) the Company’s establishment of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants, in each case, subject to Mr. Musk’s continued employment with us through the date on which achievement is certified by our board. For any tranche of the award to vest, both the applicable market capitalization milestone for such tranche and the human colony milestone must be met.

    Until that happy day occurs the shares would be out of Mr. Musk's hands and safe and secure under the custodianship of the dictator of SpaceX who is (assistant whispers in ears) huh.

    Page 166 talks about the old dream of Lunar He3 for fusion power and quantum computing without saying any of those words because people might remember space advocates talking about lunar helium in the 1990s and 2000s:

    Once resource utilization capabilities are proven feasible, we believe there is an opportunity to commercialize the harvesting and exportation of rare materials, which is estimated to be present on the Moon in quantities exceeding one million tons and has potential applications in future nuclear energy and quantum computing systems.

  • How to disinvest from the chatbot bubble

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  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • Molecular disintegration chambers also feature in those erotic horror comics I mentioned a few months ago! Cw cartoon sexuality, arguments that life is pointless, and Nick Bostrom

  • Google is replacing search results with only the AI

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  • DDG has been my main search engine for over a decade but it has degraded as it became basically a reseller of Bing results after Russia started the current phase of the Ukraine war and they stopped partnering with Yandex.

  • How to disinvest from the chatbot bubble

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  • Good point, they have spent a lot of money on Gemini and Google Cloud for AI.

    Edit / Google invested $2 billion in Anthropic in 2023 and promised up to $40b beginning in 2026

    One article suggested using options and you don't need to know what an option is to move some money out of the US tech sector.

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • We believe the next paradigm shift for humanity is the creation of a resilient, perpetually expanding spacefaring civilization that drives continuous innovation across new frontiers, ultimately propelling us to Kardashev Type II status—a civilization that harnesses the full energy output of our Sun. In the near term, we expect space-enabled technologies to enhance life on Earth through greater global connectivity and breakthroughs forged in the harsh environments of our solar system, leading to accelerating progress in energy and AI. As we build infrastructure in the Earth’s orbit, and potentially on the Moon, Mars and beyond, we believe we are capable of unlocking an era of unprecedented economic expansion, while also contributing to the safeguards of humanity’s future against existential risk. (source)

    I keep seeing grown men with serious jobs thinking like I did as a fourteen-year-old playing with TTRPG vehicle-design rules. We need to figure out how to keep Earth habitable before we worry about building the Ringworld. The man who sabotaged high-speed rail in California wants this?

    Edit / My mecha can totally give the Muskrat's mecha a wedgie, just look at how I optimized it with my Texas Instruments calculator and a lined notebook

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • Google is replacing search results with only the AI

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  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • Edward W. Niedermeyer calls the plans to put SpaceX and OpenAI public at ludicrously inflated valuations and dump shares on index funds for real money BAGNAROK. American pension funds are starting to say out loud that this is a bad deal.

    The officials - representing three of the top four largest public pension plans in the U.S. - objected to the amount of power the board has given Musk over the company, including voting control over the stock, veto power over his ​own removal as CEO, and protections from litigation, including mandatory arbitration for SpaceX shareholder claims.

    ...

    In their letter, the pension leaders urged SpaceX to adopt one-share, one-vote or sunset super-voting shares within seven years; install a majority-independent board and separate ⁠the CEO and ​chair roles; eliminate provisions protecting Musk from termination without his approval; scrap mandatory arbitration; and require independent approval of related-party ​transactions with Musk's other companies.

    "Precisely because SpaceX is poised to occupy a position of systemic importance in the public markets, and to become, through index inclusion, an unavoidable holding in our portfolios, its governance must at least adhere to the baseline protections upon ​which long-term institutional capital depends, rather than seeking to diminish them," they wrote.

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • The ISS already has issues with structural fatigue which seem to be worsened by thermal expansion. Having one side of your station red hot and another at room temperature is a big temperature differential and what faces the sun and heats up on one side of the orbit will be in shadow and cooling on the other side. And the bigger you make a physical system, the worse problems get.

    I miss when I could cheer SpaceX launches on an iMac.

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • I think the classical example was "you ask your broker to buy some shares at $20 each, the broker waits as long as possible, and if the price drops low enough it buys them for $19.80, keeps 20 cents, and tells you it paid $20."

    Edit / in fact it was "Ms. Easton, a widow of Boston, MA wants to buy $1,000 of a penny stock, so the broker buys $10, waits for her purchase to drive the price up, and sells them at a profit before going out to a showing of one of those exciting new moving pictures."

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • Some online dating device is demonic in the same sense as the chatbot which encouraged someone to commit suicide then initiated erotic roleplay with him.

    A lot of lonely guys will do well from hiring a professional for some social dates and makeout sessions to get practice reading body language and finding some face-to-face activity with women which is not just about dating.

  • Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 24th May 2026

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  • Benjamin Felix is a financial planner in Ottawa aimed at people with at least $1 million to invest. He has a BEng, a MBA, was on a sports team at university. And in April he titled his latest video SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift. The podcast version is called episode 406 "when massive private companies go public."

    He also uses the term "front running" from our friends in cryptocurrency.

    Keeping the float (value of shares available to trade on the open market) low would enable scams like all the ways of keeping the USD price of cryptocurrency from collapsing.

    Edit/ The podcast is pretty mild but contains the sentences "investing in IPOs on a secondary market is one of the worst investment strategies that you could possibly employ. They tend to have a first day pop where the price on the public market jumps up relative to the IPO price, but most investors don't get the IPO price."