I'm no strategist, but I think you're wrong here. Lebanon is a sovereign nation and the government there is not yet engaged in resistance. If Israel keeps attacking Lebanon and the Lebanon government continues to not join the resistance, at some point the government will fall to internal rebellion. This would be net positive for the resistance, though absolutely devastating for the Lebanese people. The alternative is that Iran protects the Lebanese people and the Lebanese government continues to support the West.
Equally important, Israel continue to extend itself in this campaign exposing operations, personnel, and logistics, all of which become more vulnerable the longer their campaign continues. Stopping it early is not strategically valuable. Again, devastating for the Lebanese people, but they are the responsibility of the Lebanese government who needs to get on the right side of history before they are going to be able to rely on Iran's support.
It's a game of chicken right now. The frozen conflict can wreak havoc on domestic stability in Iran if it goes on too long and if the imperialists find ways to tighten the siege (like the blockade). At the same time, the oil situation is dangerous for the US. Yes, the US has strategic reserves to ride this out a little bit. Yes the US can buffer with Venezuelan oil and other sources. But these things can only go so far. Other commodities like helium and fertilizer will also cause huge problems for the US.
But the US has the greatest ability of the many parties involved to obtain things they need. So the US is probably calculating that they can win the game of chicken. I don't think they believe they can open the straight via force. They know that Iran can mine the waterway and that guerilla fighters could maintain unacceptable threat levels. So I actually don't think the US will resume hostilities.
I do think Israel is trying to take advantage of the fact that Iran cannot safely extend itself to defend the entire region or risk exposing major vulnerabilities to US attacks. For now I think this is the real threat - Israeli expansion in the region.
I am curious as to what will come from the meeting between Xi and Putin this week. Watching what changes in Ukraine after this meeting will give us some insight into how well China is weathering the resource crisis