the probability of aliens existing near us

ok so because there was a post on this comm 10 minutes ago about somebody wishing that more happens here, here's my take

what's the probability of aliens happening to be physically close to Earth? rather low, i guess. here's why

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxidation_Event

if you would please consult the diagram

it says that live has taken about 4 billion years to develop. meanwhile most of human culture and arts and science has developed within the last 10k years which is roughly one millionth of the entire time. i think that humanity will spread to other planets in a high velocity in the near future so if we encounter another planet, what are the chances of them being pre-singularity (the time that we learn to settle other planets)? idk

but the chances of meeting them while they are developing science is rather low, we'd have to meet them in a rather narrow maybe 10k years slice of time. rather unlikely. if we meet aliens, they're either really dumb or very technologically advanced.

the same the other way around: they either met us in the very distant future and are therefore a normal part of today's life, or they're not likely to come here anytime soon.