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108
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2 yr. ago

  • If somebody like him actually runs, it will only happen to gauge public support for peace. He is never going to win, but if he should have won Putin might try to go for a peace deal in Ukraine.

  • Russia had fuel shortages last summer, as harvest season increased diesel consumption. It seems like Ukraine wants to repeat that this winter. This is Russias third largest refinery and Russia is a big country, so by taking one out, they have to transport the fuel over large distances.

  • 2013 war wirklich ein versagen der SPD sonder gleichen. Das sie lieber mit der Union als mit Grünen und Linken regieren wollten sagt wirklich viel aus. Da haben sie auch noch die Schuldenbremse eingeführt.

    Allerdings muss man auch sagen, dass die jetzige Regierung viel gemacht hat worüber sich die Wirtschaft massiv beschwert hat. Heizungsgesetz, Verbrenner aus und vorallem die Sanktionen gegen Russland waren nicht beliebt in der deutschen Wirtschaft.

  • Correct, which is why he killed himself. He lost his grandmother and now rest rest of his family lost him and his grandmother.

  • There are mystery fires in Russian oil and gas facilities since the start of the war.

    The difference is that the US has increased oil production a lot and OPEC+ is cutting. So if Russia can export less oil, the likely response from OPEC+ other then Russia is to not cut production as much and cash in. A year ago the EU has banned most oil imports from Russia and that shock is mostly worked through now. Also at -10°C oil stops flowing easily and at below it it starts to freeze. So for a lot of Russian oil infrastructure damage is especially bad atm.

  • Ich glaube nicht das der kleine Pascha aus der CDU austritt.

  • That is dumb. He could have sabotaged so many missiles.

  • A lot of people like porn. So why would they not use a site like X?

  • You can see right on the screenshot 57% renewables with wind being the biggest source of electricity. That means by adding 75% more renewables Germany would be able to support itself. The reason Germany sucks so badly at this is that it uses coal instead of gas. Gas power plants have a third of the emissions of a coal power plant per kWh. In terms of share of low carbon electricity Germany is doing alright and is building a lot recently. Since Germany has coal power plants instead of gas ones for the most part, it also means Germany is replacing those coal power plants. So this should go down quickly.

    Also battery storage is growing extremly quickly in Germany and the rest of the plan is hydrogen in gas power plants for dunkelflaute. However at current rate Germany should have an electricity system as clean as France within a decade. The built up numbers for renewables are strong enough for that and we are talking about nearly 60% renewable electricity production last year already.

    France has had a huge nuclear crisis in the last couple years with a rather long times half of the power plants being down due to technical issues. The UK is currently having 6 out of 9 npps down.

  • It prohibits sales of fossil fuel cars in the EU to final customers. Companies can still design them and sell them abroad. There is nothing illegal about that. What this does do is bring EU auto makers into a position, where they have to invest into green technologies. The important thing is that it is the right thing to do and we know how. So if we do not do it, other countries will and by being the leaders, we will have the best technology or at least have a good shot at it.

    Obviously a lot of suppliers are going to have problems with it. When you built combustion engines, you have a hard time transitioning. However we also have demographic labour shortages, which means that it is a good step for us.

  • In 2022 Russia had 1,304,087 births. Half of them are male, so something like 650,000. When you consider emigration due to not wanting to be drafted, Russia is really burning though its population.

  • Die Lösung dafür ist natürlich in Deutschland den Konsum anzukurbeln. Das geht auch in dem man zum Beispiel Sozialleistungen erhöht und das Steuermodel umbaut, sodass mehr Vermögenssteuern erhoben werden, allerdings weniger auf Einkommen aus Arbeit. Außerdem muss man sagen das die Schuldenbremse natürlich auch Konsum aussaugt.

    Allerdings ist die Situation sonst nicht schlecht. Deutschland hat mit die beste Bonität der Welt und das ist auch im Privatbereich so ähnlich. Sprich man kann auch ein bisschen Schulden machen für den Umbau. Es gibt ganz klar Investitionsbedarf und wir haben anders als viele andere Länder eine wirklich starke Industrie die die meisten Dinge die wir brauchen selber herstellen kann. Wie geagt das wichtigste dürfte sein den Konsum anzukurbeln.

  • Frag mal die Briten wie es gerade läuft. Die haben sich so lange daran abgearbeitet, dass es irgendwann klar war, dass es so nicht geht.

  • They are propably out of the high quality ones and the old stuff they have shorter ranges. So they move them closer to the front. Also they are attacking, so they need to be closer due to that.

  • There are no warehouse full with weapons in Western Europe. Most of them have been sold. So you would have to take weapons from soldiers, which obviously weakens the military. That is especially true since they have to train.

    Then soldiers are needed for tasks, which have nothing to do with Russia. For example the issues in the Red Sea right now. But there are also troops fighting terrorism in a lot of different countries, UN missions all across the globe and so forth. Those are also needed for national security.

    Then you have Western troops depolyed near the Russian border. You have Baltic Air Policing and NATO Enhanced Forward Presence, which both are meant to protect the Baltic countries for example. There are quite a few examples like that.

    Also it is obviously a problem, when you do not have soldiers deployed at home as well. Russia has things like landing ships and planes.

  • Nearly all of Russia's weapons have been made in the Soviet Union. It is able to repair them, but for many unable to develop new once and produce them in quantity. As soon as the stockpiles have been destroyed it is going to be nearly impossible to rebuilt them.

    Even worse Russia's population is falling. The number of births last June was at a record low. Many regions reported double digit drops compared to a year earlier. As far as I can tell, they stopped publishing data after that. That is what happens, when you have a lot of young men emigrate your country and even more importantly your economy is a dumpster fire. Thanks to a lack of Western medicine this seems to get even worse. In Russia life expectancy for a 15 year old boy is worse then in Haiti. In 2021 Russia's population shrunk by a million people due to Covid. It seems like this is not going to be the only time that happened. Russia is shrinking. If it does not get Ukraine's population to fuel the next war, it will have a huge problem. That is especially true, due to it no longer receiving migrants.

    We see massive infrastructure failures all over Russia. Rolling blackouts become common and district heating systems fail. Russia currently has no money to fix this, which means it is going to get even worse. Industrial production besides war related products has dropped of a cliff. The only thing keeping the Russian economy alive is the military industry. For the rest we see sky high interest rates and high inflation. This means stagflation has already started. Gas revenues are down a lot and oil revenues are dropping. At the same time the war chest is half empty. As soon as that goes down Russia is going to cut back even more on infrastructure.

    So I honestly doubt Russia comes out of this hole. The only things going for Russia are nukes and oil. The rest just points to a long term structural decline. Natural population decline, awful economy and complete lack of technical innovation as all the talent moves abroad. Even a stalemate is a loss for Russia in this war.

  • Russia has access to massive amounts of old Soviet artillery storage. Before the war it was 12345 towed and 5093 self propelled, but that includes once which can not be fixed. Unfortunatly satellite imagry is unable to show that. However half a year ago they were already down to 7500 towed and 4408 self propelled. Given that that was half a year ago, it propably is worse today and a lot of what is left is propably to bad to be fixed.

    The more I look at it, the more Russia is struggling to keep the war going. If the US would continue its support I would be pretty sure Ukraine is going to win.