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FuckyWucky [none/use name]

@ FuckyWucky @hexbear.net

Posts
13
Comments
755
Joined
3 yr. ago

Pro-stealing art without attribution

  • Still don't see the point of gold here other than may be sanctions evasion. The exporting nations have to accumulate Dollars first to buy gold.

    And central banks buy gold off budget unlike most spending which has to be debated and appropriated by the legislature.

    Central banks hoard it and pump up the price. If a central bank bought up real estate and didn't even rent it out, it'll raise questions from the public on why cb is hoarding homes. Yet no one cares when it's gold. People even call gold hoarding to be prudent.

    Heck, even copper buying by a central bank using its infinite local currency capacity or using limited foreign currency reserves would be scrutinised heavily. Yet gold is fine. Palladium has similar properties to gold, why not hoard palladium?

    China will accept palladium as collateral and give you Yuan for it. You ultimately pay in Yuan or similar currencies if you are a sanctioned country.

    And gold itself is marked in $ terms in the books so the more gold CBs lock up the higher the % due to valuation effect even though nothing was created.

  • Yea it's very clear Israel isn't reliant on US public funds directly. It has a large export surplus with the US, and embedding themselves more directly will raise dependence.

    In fact the aid is probably hurting their export competitiveness. This way they can get their currency weaker and make others dependent on them.

    Most of the dollars Israel receives is private sector financial wealth.

    For all the handwringing from the West abt Chinese "overcapacity", it is Israel that's pursuing a neo-mercantilist policy.

  • Bad economics using loanable funds nonsense. It comes from the

    Savings - Investment = Current Account Balance

    Identity. The savings in this case isn't household savings. Current account includes trade btw.

    It is in fact the rest of the world's willingness to accept Chinese imports (treatlerites for instance), and China's willingness to accept certain currencies and financial assets that results in the trade surplus.

    I think there is a legitimate argument to be had whether the world deserves Chinese labor and resources embodied in the goods they export considering continuous trade deficits in own currency (eg USD) is closer to aid than trade. But it has nothing to do with household savings.

  • Kimi K2, Deepseek 4, Qwen have been pretty good and very cheap.

    While Claude may be somewhat better, it's not worth it.

  • Fell for "sound finance" neoliberalism conflating real and financial award.

    Good article

  • they're enshittifying index funds now 😭

  • Retvrn to monke

  • If fuel is supplied through state enterprises, the state can essentially set prices and recapitalize from budget as needed.

    The supply shock then manifests as the currency weakening and other imports becoming pricier. This works as long as the country has sufficient foreign currency sources (exports, capital flows, remittances).

    Foreign currency reserves can help outbid other countries too for existing oil without affecting exchange rate.

    Unfortunately, even in countries where oil corps are owned by the state (e.g. India), the state is unwilling to allow these enterprises to run losses in local currency ("sound" finance). Good to see Malaysia is holding the line for now.

    The state can do this even without nationalizing but theres greater risk of fraud, arbitrage if private sector is involved.

    Though at the aggregate subsidies doesnt create more oil, countries outbid one another, if all countries do this, oil prices get pushed up in Dollar terms too.

    I'll say it's a good thing the US isnt doing this since its one of the largest consumers and US in particular can outbid countries without worrying about exchange rates, large countries should let fuel prices go up slowly and compress demand instead of keeping it fixed.

  • and i mog everyone by the benchmark i made up

  • Yep. I've found MMT to be most realistic descriptor of money, it says that logically the state must spend or the central bank must lend before you are able to pay taxes with state money instead of money dropping from a helicopter.

  • You can read after it's fine. It's only tangnetially related

  • Yep it creates a lot of bad incentives. For example, corps and individuals borrow in Euros or Dollars at 5-10% or whatever hoping the Central Bank will pick up the rest by maintaining crawling peg to help pay back the debt.

    When it turns out the central bank can't and the exchange rate crashes, the debts become unservicable ie currency mismatch.

    So never raise rates to higher double digits especially when you have loose capital controls and fixed exchange rates.

    And the typical solution of "just lower rates" becomes more complicated too since private sector is still stuck with massive foreign currency debt even if Turkish central bank lower rates. And because a lot of Lira was created due to high rates which now flood the foreign exchange market.

    In case of Turkey, the >100% then 70-80% rates of the 2000s destroyed Lira credit market that makes it very difficult to switch back to low rates (that's why Erdogans low rate experiment failed). In an economy with low stock of foreign currency debt, floating exchange rates, low interest rates wouldn't cause runaway depreciation like what happened in Turkey.

    India is one of the few developing countries which has a low interest rate (5.25%), floating currency. And now they are planning some stupid nonsense like Dollar indexed Rupee bonds to curb depreciation (not even that high) which is happening due to a supply shock it has little control over.

  • Yes Turkish Lira deposits get you 'free' (in Lira terms) 37%, also the rate Government has to pay on its bonds (which adds more free money to private sector rentiers). And yep it destroys local credit and promotes foreign currency borrowing. 1 year depreciation is 16% or so but Turkish Lira exchange rate isn't market determined, central bank maintains it with crawling peg (so it can only depreciate a few % every day before central bank steps in and buys up lira using $).

  • Turkish Lira is absolutely cooked. They are drawing upon all their $ reserves to keep the Lira crawling peg stable. They'll be forced to accelerate the crawl if they don't want to go into foreign debt.

    Turkey and India are the two countries whose currencies are being cooked by this shock. Many commodity exporters including those in the AI supply chain are doing relatively fine because value of their exports rose quite a bit. But Turkey and India aren't commodity exporters in the way Brazil is for example. There's still a difference, India has minimal foreign currency debt, their interest rates are set fairly low. So, the Rupee will absorb most of it. Turkey depends on foreigners holding Lira for high interest rates (37% rate!), but when expected depreciation of Lira is higher than the interest, foreigners don't want to hold it.

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