According to Fediverse Observer the fediverse currently has 1.8 million monthly active users (src). Instagram in the meantime has 1.44 billion monthly active users (src).

Lets be generous and use the 12 million total user accounts for the fediverse, not the IMHO more relevant active users. Lets then be very conservative and say that only 1% of all Instagram users will try the new Activity Pub based service Threads. By this estimate the Meta-share of the fediverse will bigger then the whole accumulated userbase so far with 14.4 million users. I think that the 1% is quite conservative, given the marketing might that Meta has.

This means that from the start there will be a "second" fediverse - even if completely defederated from the existing one - with people sharing links, writing comments & thoughts and posting pictures. So there is a potential question to be asked - who is defederating from whom here content-wise?

Secondly I think EEE can also aim at "just" the featureset and technicalities. Safe to assume that Meta has more paid engineers and designers on staff then lets say Lemmy (or Mastodon). Those teams will implement features that the users want, that make their life more convenient. Features that take the currently existing "nerdy overhead" out of the fediverse. All the OS services in the fediverse are then under pressure to either adopt or die.

So yeah, capitalism does what capitalism does, making things marketable. Written wearing my Che shirt.